We tackled the NFC games earlier in the week, now it's on the AFC! New England, Cincinnati, Baltimore and the NY Jets comprise the four teams competing to get a crack at Indy and San Diego. Let me first go on the record and say: The New York Jets should not be in the playoffs. They have an overrated defense, an ignorant big-mouthed head coach, and a quarterback is so inaccurate with the football he couldn't hit the ocean if he fell out of a boat. Fortunately for the Jets, they played the Colts when they decided to step away from the challenge of going 16-0, and if that wasn't enough in their next game they hosted the Bengals in a game that meant absolutely nothing to Cincy (as evidenced by the fact that they held a large number of players out and followed a vanilla gameplan for the entire game). Now I've told you all before that I try to be very unbiased when I discuss sports but I'm sorry, sometimes my personal feelings win out and it just so happens that I'm right on the mark, and NY fans the truth does indeed hurt. Don't worry I'll explain my position later on, let's start breaking down the matchups...
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots: What a matchup! Baltimore comes in fresh off a win in Oakland, a closely played game that they needed to have to get into the playoffs. NE limps into this game after losing more than just their last game in Houston. The NFL 2009 leader in receptions, Wes Welker, suffered a torn ACL and MCL and has been put on season ending IR. This is a HUGE blow to the Patriots. Anyone who doesn't admit this is a liar. Welker is one of the toughest, grittiest players in the league and demands constant attention of opponent's defense every snap of the game. The connection between Brady and Welker was evident throughout the entire season as both players could almost anticipate what the other would do next. Many sports analysts and reporters have proclaimed this loss will cripple not only the New England offense but also the heart and soul of the team. However, don't buy into it. Don't count them out. Anyone that believes the Patriots are out obviously doesn't watch enough football or sports period.
Does anyone remember the 2001 NFL season? The Patriots had their "greatest quarterback ever" (at the time) Drew Bledsoe freshly signed to a new 10yr contract the previous year, and things were on the up and up in New England. Then came their 2nd game of the season. Ironically, it was against their arch-rival, the Jets, and a severe hit by Mo Lewis on Bledsoe knocked him out of the game. After the game we would find out that Bledsoe would be out indefinitely with internal bleeding. Enter Tom Brady. A late round draft pick out of Michigan. No one knew much about him at all. After experiencing some regular season success, the Patriots entered the playoffs and beat the Raiders, Steelers, and Rams to claim their first NFL Championship. My point behind this little history lesson is this: injuries don't always cripple a team, many times they open doors for the next great players to be discovered. What if Bledsoe never got hurt? Brady never discovered? Patriots never 3-time champs? Perhaps. Understand me right, I'm not trying to tell you that Julian Edelman is the next great wide receiver that will be better than Jerry Rice. No not all, probably not even close. What I am trying to get across is this simple point: When adversity strikes that's when you find out the true character of a person, team, etc. I have strong faith that they will handle this adversity with great mental toughness, move forward as a team, and put their best foot forward on Sunday afternoon.
Breaking down the actual game I look at many interesting stats that favor NE. First of all, did you know that the Ravens have never EVER beaten the Patriots??? Balt is 0-5 lifetime against the Pats. Another glaring bit of information: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have never lost a home playoff game, 8-0 in the playoffs in the great state of Massachusetts. Tom Brady's playoff record: 14-3, not bad, not bad at all. The Ravens have a very strong ground game that I expect them to put to work early and often. However, with Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren starting for the defense I believe yards will be hard to come by. The biggest concern for the Patriots has to be pressuring the quarterback. Their inability to sack the opponent's QB has been the achilles heel of the defense all year long. In games against Jax and Buffalo they did improve, however they'll need to put together a strong showing if they want to rattle Flacco. Brady made a rather interesting comment this week concerning their offense. "It may actually be an advantage to us, not having Wes. Now they won't have any idea where we're going with the ball," Brady said. Welker received so much attention not only from the defense but also from Brady every game he played. Now the Patriots will have to look elsewhere to move the chains. I think that with Fred Taylor healthy they will try to run him, along with Sammy Morris, regularly to balance the pass and run. The key matchup for this game will Benjamin Watson/Kevin Faulk vs. Ray Lewis/Balt linebackers. I believe at some point in this game Faulk or Watson will be called upon by Brady to make a play - a big play. If they can complete it, New England will march on to SD looking to eliminate the Chargers for the 3rd time in four years. Ultimately, I see the Patriots winning by a final score of 34-24.
The Cincinnati Bengals host the NY Jets. The Bengals looked like the dark horse SuperBowl contender earlier in the season but the whieels started to come off their bus in the later part of the year. Yes they won the AFC North but I don't see them making it to the big dance. I absolutely believe they will beat the Jets on Saturday afternoon, quite handily too, for a few simple reasons: 1) Carson Palmer has been waiting for this moment. Ever since he went down with the knee injury in the 2005 playoffs, he's been itching to get back to the postseason. This is his chance, his opportunity to shine. 2) The week 17 meeting means absolutely nothing. The Bengals went into that game knowing exactly what they controlled: their opponent for the playoffs. If they would have beat NY, they would be playing the Houston Texans and their explosive offense. Therefore they chose to rest some starters, bow out against NY thus setting up a rematch against the inexperienced young Jets. 3) Mark Sanchez was 2nd in the NFL this year for most interceptions. The only person to throw more INTs than Sanchez was Jay Cutler, sorry Al. The NFL used to be a run the ball, play tough defense league. Key words in that sentence - "used to be". Thanks to the crying of Bill Polian and the rest of the Colts' organization in 2004 after they lost to the Patriots for the 2nd year in a row, the NFL changed around rules and created this passing joyland that we now know and I guess love. It is a quarterbacks league. If you don't have a high profile effiicent quarterback that knows how to win you will not be successful. Why do you think the Rams won 1 game this year? The Jets rookie QB may have a strong arm, a convincing smile and a sweet resume from USC but that doesn't translate into immediate NFL success. I have watched Sanchez quite a few times this year and I saw a quarterback that was inexperienced, unintelligent, and ill-prepared to win. For all these reasons I do not see the Jets winning this weekend. But remember, the best thing about the NFL is on any given Sunday (or Saturday for this example) any team can win if they play better than their opponent. I still don't buy it for the Jets. Sanchez will turn the ball over at least 2 times and it will lead to Cincy points. At some point in this game, their will be a crucial moment, Sanchez will need to make a decision. Now whether that decision is to throw the ball away, throw a checkdown pass, take a shot down field, or run with the ball, that I don't know. But I can guarantee you that he will make the wrong choice and his team will suffer for it. Again, understand, I'm not saying Mark Sanchez will never be a good player, he might go on to have great success next season, in 3 years, who knows, but we are talking about right here, right now. At this point in time he just doesn't have what it takes, and this will be New York's undoing.
Let me just take one minute to explain to you why Rex Ryan, head coach of the Jets, is an idiot. This guy loves his team, he's emotional, he's cocky, loves to win, and will back his players no matter what. However, when you make a statement to the world that "your team should be favored to win the SuperBowl" I take serious umbrage. C'MONNNN MAN!!!!!!!! Give me a break! I understand being confident, I understand liking your matchup, hell I know you beat the crap outta Cincy less than a week ago but this is different. This is... the playoffs. The game speeds up, everything gets more intense, each play matters that much more, and the time quarterbacks have to break down a defense shrinks in half. Yes, the Jets have 2 great running backs. Yes they have one of the best shutdown corners in the NFL (Revis really has put together a remarkable season). Yes their defense is tough, attacking, relentless, and intimidating. However, without an experienced, mentally tough quarterback you can't advance in the NFL Playoffs. You just can't. Those are the rules I didn't write 'em!
To conclude this discussion on the Cincy/NY matchup, I see the game starting off very competitive and close. Once the game gets into the 2nd quarter and beyond I do believe the Jets will start imploding and the Bengals will pull away, setting up a date with the Colts in the divisional round. Cincinnati 24, New York 13.
Can't wait for Saturday. I love the NFL Playoffs, best and worst time of the year. Best because its the best football of the year with the best teams fighting for ultimate glory. Worst because it also signals the season is coming to an end and football will soon be gone for a long, long time. No more talk of that. Let's enjoy the games while they last!
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