Thursday, November 17, 2011

NFL Week 11 bold predictions

As we head into the 2nd half of the NFL season, teams are starting to separate themselves. The playoff picture will begin to come into focus in the coming weeks. Last week I bounced back with my picks, going 9-6 and hopefully my genius continues to grow this week! In week 10 we saw devastating collapses by home teams and stunning victories by underdogs! More of the same this week? Like our pal Berman always says, 'And that's why... they play the games!'

TNF: Jets at Broncos - Tebowmania is running wild throughout the country. Everyone everywhere has an opinion of the the young Denver QB. Sanchez and his offense come into this game struggling big time after a monumental home loss to the hated Patriots. A mere week ago Rex Ryan proclaimed, 'The time is now! We want the division and we plan to take it!' Umm, yeah... so much for that idea Rexy. New England dominated and grounded the Jets, bringing their three game winning streak to a screeching halt. Now Gang Green must quickly lick their wounds, and on a short week's rest, prepare for a completely different challenge than Brady presented. Tim Tebow threw only eight passes in his win at KC last week, only completing two of them... TWO!!! The Broncos are running the football at a frenetic pace and the Jets can't defend the run. It should be quite interesting to see how well the Jets defense responds with Revis, their biggest playmaker, a non-factor. The Jets are not a very good team this year, and neither are the Broncos. New York's slide continues as Tebow's unpredictable run gains more speed. Broncos pull off the first upset of the weekend, narrowly defeating Rex's Jets by 5. *Important to know - this pick was made Wednesday evening!*

Carolina at Detroit: With their blockbuster Thanksgiving day game a mere four days away, the Lions better not be looking past the young, spirited Panthers this afternoon. Cam Newton took the NFL by storm in his first few games but has since come back down to Earth. Carolina's rookie will try to lead his team to a huge road upset, but I don't see it happening. Detroit was smashed in every phase of the game at Chicago last week and they should come out with lots of firepower for this one. I expect a fast start by the home team in the first half, with the Lions defense coming up with just enough stops in the fourth quarter. Lions by 9.

Raiders travel to Minnesota: Oakland has a golden opportunity to seize control of the AFC West. The Vikings are still reeling after an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Monday Night Football. Christian Ponder has played decent to start off his NFL career but he's still a rookie on a losing team. Carson Palmer continues to improve, preparing himself and Oakland for a shot at the playoffs. Road team scores early and often. Da Raaaaaiders by 7.

'Skins host Dallas, seeking payback: Shift back to week 3, MNF in Dallas when the Cowboys held off Washington late in the game by strip-sacking Rex Grossman in the final minutes. The Redskins have lost five straight after a promising 3-1 start. Look for Romo and Murray to scored points in bundles. Dallas destroys the fading Redskins by 14.

Bengals clash with Baltimore: Who are the Ravens? Are they the team that is 2-0 against the Steelers? Perhaps they are the offensively challenged group that failed to beat the Jaguars and Seahawks? We'll find out more about the character of dirty birds today when they host Cincy without Ray Lewis. The Bengals come into this game after a close home loss last week to Pittsburgh. Dalton played well against Big Ben and nearly led a fourth quarter comeback. Ray Rice must dominate this game for the Ravens to win and I believe he will. This slug fest will have many twists and turns but rookie sensation AJ Green will not be in action for Cincinnati and that will cost the Bengals dearly. Baltimore wins by 4.

Jags head to the Dog Pound: I don't see the point of wasting any time on this game. Cleveland gave away their game to the Rams last week and there's no reason to believe they'll get past Jacksonville. But in a year where nothing seems to make sense in the NFL, why not pick the Brownies? Cleveland by 3.

Bucs limp into Green Bay: The Packers are on fire and Tampa Bay appears to be going up in flames. Rodgers and his receivers will score all day and it wouldn't surprise me to see the GB defense take a few Lambeau leaps too. Packers dominate Buccaneers by 17.

Bills visit Miami: The Dolphins are suddenly on a winning streak and Buffalo has lost three of four. Quite a role reversal from the start of the season? If Ryan Fitzpatrick and his team have any hope of catching the Patriots for the division title they must have this one. The Bills should win this game but I think the home team comes out fighting, refusing to back down. Close, entertaining game ends with Phins stopping the visitors on 4th down in the red zone, winning their third straight game. Miami by 3.

Niners host Cardinals: San Fran is coming off a huge win last Sunday over the Giants. Surprisingly enough the Cardinals won a tight contest last week in Philly with their backup quarterback John Skelton leading them. Letdown week for the team by the bay? Hardly. Even though Frank Gore is an injury concern for the 49ers, the inspiring play from their defense is more than enough to get them by. Alex Smith plays solid, leads SF to a 10 pt win.

Seattle at St. Louis: The Seahawks are a mystery. The Rams are bruised and broken. Seattle's coming off a mind-boggling victory over the Ravens while St. Louis barely escaped Cleveland with a win. This all sets the stage for... a boring game. Both teams are 3-6 and with no playoff implications visible let's keep moving... Rams by 7.

Titans clash with Falcons in Hotlanta: Crucial must-win contest for each team today. Both come in at 5-4 and believe a playoff appearance is in their future. The Falcons came into this season as major SuperBowl contenders and need to shake off last week's loss to the visiting Saints quickly. I like the home team to start off hot and race out to a big lead. Tennessee will eventually fight back and make a game of it in the second half. Atlanta hands off to Michael Turner in the fourth quarter to grind down the clock and Titan defense. Falcons come away with a narrow victory, winning by 5.

Chargers battle Bears in the windy city: Tale of two teams moving fast in opposite directions. San Diego comes in playing their worst football of the season, losers of four in a row. Chicago is starting to click on all cylinders, having won four consecutive games. Sadly for the Chargers I don't see their slide stopping today. The Bears special teams will prove to be too much for the weary visitors. All hands on deck for the Devin Hester watch, truly one of the most incredible, exciting play-makers in the history of the NFL. Cutler continues to play error free and Urlacher leads the ferocious defense to a huge win. The Chargers are faced with the cold reality that their window of opportunity may have come and gone. Bears by 9.

Eagles land in New York: The Giants, still stinging from a road loss in San Fran, look to deal the Eagles another deathly blow in the Sunday night game. Michael Vick is out for Philly. Enter Vince Young. Can the challenged, former star-quarterback lead the underdog Eagles to perhaps a season-saving win? Not so fast my friend. I do believe it will be a competitive game, until Philadelphia self-destructs in the second half. Giants bounce back with the victory, as the Eagles hit a new low. NY by 13.

Monday Night Football - Chiefs visit Patriots: The stunning loss by the Jets on Thursday night has put New England in prime position for another division title. By the the time Brady and the Pats take the field Monday night they could find themselves in position to take a commanding two game lead over both the Jets and Bills. First they must get by Kansas City. Former Patriot quarterback Matt Cassel had hand surgery and will miss Monday's game. Enter Tyler Palko. The quarterback has only thrown 13 passes in the NFL and must face off against three-time SuperBowl champion Tom Brady in Foxboro. The connections between these two teams are still ever-so-present. Bill Belichick's former right-hand-man Scott Pioli is now the GM for the Chiefs and their defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel directed the SuperBowl winning D for the Patriots during their remarkable run from 2001-2004. The Pats secondary is banged up but thankfully their offense gained some major momentum last week in New York, ripping apart Rex's defense in the second half thanks to tight end wonder Rob Gronkowski. I expect plenty of points in this game and a surprising showing by the often criticized Pats defense. Brady and Belichick take advantage of the opportunity in front of them, Pats by 17.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

NFL hits midpoint, must-win games everywhere

After going 6-8 in my picks last week, it's time to go back to the basics in this incredibly unpredictable NFL season. Time to put up or shut up. We're in Week 10 and there's a fantastic slate of games on the schedule. All  32 teams are in action this week, however due to the Thursday night game already complete (an embarrassing home loss for Rives and the Chargers to the their division rival Raiders) we have 15 games to pick today. Let's not waste anymore time with details, ONTO THE GAMES!

Titans visit Panthers: I picked Tennessee last week to 'upset' the Bengals at home, I thought Chris Johnson would finally break out of his slump, and lastly, I said Cincy's rookie QB had to finally slow down. I was wrong on all three. Carolina is fresh off their bye week and I like Cam Newton to run and throw all over the Titan defense today. Panthers win by 10.

Pittsburgh looks to rebound in Cincinnati: Great division matchup here. With the Bengals at 6-2, every football fan across the country is wondering - are they for real? The Steelers are coming off a last-second home loss to the hated Ravens and need this one badly to avoid going 0-3 in the division. As much as I want to pick the Bengals, gotta go back to the basics. Big Ben has just enough weapons to use on Cincy's top three NFL defense and the Pitt D will frustrate Dalton into a few turnovers to shift the game in the Steelers favor. Pittsburgh comes out on top by 7.

Saints collide with Falcons in ATL: Any time these two teams get together we're usually treated to one helluva game, today will be no different. Drew Brees vs. Matt Ryan. The dirty birds think they've recovered their mojo and New Orleans looks like serious competition for the unbeaten Packers down the road in the playoffs. I believe the Saints are the better team but they're not playing in their dome. The Falcons thrive off playing in front of their home crowd, narrowly defeat the Saints by 4.

Rams stumble into Cleveland: Talk a battle of lowly teams, the Browns have lost four of five games and St. Louis has only one win this season. Can't afford to waste much time on this game, home team takes advantages of multiple St. Louis miscues. Brownies win by 5.

Colts host Jaguars, trying to avoid tenth straight loss: Many are saying this is Indy's best shot at a victory for the rest of the season. They might be right, but I still don't see it happening. Jacksonville's defense will rise to the occasion and their rookie quarterback will put just enough points on the board. The home teams goes into their bye week at 0-10 and need to seriously start considering the tough reality that they could go 0-16 this season. Jax wins by 10.

Bills clash with Cowboys in Big D: Talk about must win for each team. If Dallas wants any shot at winning their division they gotta have this game. The Bills are coming off a disheartening home loss to the Jets and desperately need to get back on the winning track to prevent this season's promising start from derailing like so many past failures. Romo will be challenged by the Buffalo defense and Fred Jackson needs to have a huge day for the Bills to have a chance. This one will definitely come down to the wire. While I would love to pick Buffalo here, I think their youth shows late in the game. Cowboys by 2 in the game of the day.

Tebow leads Broncos into KC: The Broncos are following the lead of their emotional leader Tim Tebow and have been surprisingly more competitive since the change at quarterback. Matt Cassel hopes to help his team rebound from a dismal performance last week when his Chiefs were beat down in a blowout by the previously win-less Dolphins. Two very inconsistent teams in a rocky division with no clear front-runner. Again, I'd love to go with Tebowmania but he's on a roller coaster ride this season. Last week was a nice up, so we're do for a big fall. KC rebounds, beats Broncos by 10.

Struggling Skins wander into Miami: The Dolphins played their best game of the season last week, thrashing the Chiefs in Kansas City. Washington has hit their typical mid-season slump, losing four in a row. Don't expect things to get better any time soon. Miami has too many good players on their team and the Redskins injuries continue to mount. Phins win a wild one over the Skins after a touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter. Miami wins by 6 and has a two game winning streak!

Cardinals fly into Philly: At the beginning of the season this would have been one of the better games on this week's slate. Former Eagle QB Kevin Kolb leads his new team into Philly to prove Andy Reid chose the wrong quarterback. High-powered offenses scoring points in bunches. Sadly, neither seem likely. Kolb will miss another game due to injury, DeSean Jackson is inactive today for Philadelphia after he missed a team meeting Saturday. Not to mention, both teams are a combined 5-11. The Eagles are on severe life support after their devastating home loss to the Bears last Monday night. Arizona is fresh off an overtime victory on their field over the Rams, in which rookie sensation Patrick Peterson returned a punt 99 yards for the game-winning touchdown. All that being said... I expect an angry Eagles team to take the field Sunday and punish the Cardinals with a heavy dose of RB LeSean McCoy. Philly crushes Cards by 17.

Texans travel to Tampa: Intriguing match-up today by the bay. Houston has kept the ship steady despite mammoth injuries to key players. At 4-4, the Bucs need this win to stay in pursuit of the division title. The Texans are trying to win their seventh game and present themselves as serious contenders in a wide open AFC Conference. As tempting as it is to go with Tampa, Ben Tate and Arian Foster have formed an unstoppable tandem. I like the Texans to move to 7-3 and beat the Buccaneers by 7.

Ravens go west to face Seahawks: Potentially a let-down game for Baltimore? No, they had their one ugly game in Jacksonville last month and Seattle is a mess. Granted the 'Hawks do play better at home and the Ravens won't be as jacked up as they were last week in Pittsburgh. Still, Suggs and Lewis will feast on a pathetic Seahawk offense that can't seem to find its niche. Ravens by 13.

Bears host Lions with payback in mind: The Bears were humbled in Detroit four weeks ago on MNF in a game that meant so much to the Lions. This heated division match-up now means the world to each team. With serious playoff ramifications on the line, expect this game to be one of today's best. Megatron will get his for Detroit but Chicago's defense will get the last laugh. Bears hold off Lions by 9.

Giants go west to take on Niners: An instant classic. This may not be the last time these two NFC contenders meet this season as a game in January is a realistic possibility. San Francisco has surprised the league this year roaring out of the gates at 7-1, their only loss by three points in overtime to the Cowboys. The Gmen come into this game after winning a major heavyweight bout last week in New England. Can Alex Smith outplay Eli Manning? Will Frank Gore run wild on Tom Coughlin's D? Two big questions that will absolutely determine the outcome in this game. I like the 49ers to win a back and forth battle, holding off a late New York charge in final minutes to hold on by 4.

Jets/Pats Part II: New England gave Rex's crew a heavy batch of their own medicine four weeks ago in Foxboro, grounding and pounding the Jets all day long for a nine point victory. Now the rivalry shifts to the Meadowlands where Gang Green has had great success against Brady and Belichick since Ryan and Sanchez have taken over the J-E-T-S. The Patriots come into this game on a two-game losing streak. The last time NE lost three straight games was nine years ago, wow! The Jets crushed the Bills last Sunday in Buffalo forcing a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East. This a must-win for each team and should provide us with a clear frontrunner for the division crown. As maligned as the Pats defense has been, I expect them to put forth a valiant effort tonight and keep the Jets offense in check. The chess match of Brady vs. Ryan is always a compelling, entertaining one to watch. Rex loves to pressure the New England quarterback but Tom Brady knows what's coming. Should be a fantastic game and I like the Patriots to finish the game with a long methodical drive, defeating the home-team Jets by 7.

Vikings take on Packers in GB: Minnesota played the Packers closely in a narrow six point loss two Sundays ago. However that game was at home. Now they go on the road to Lambeau Field. The Packers are 8-0 and overcame a huge hurdle last week in San Diego, sneaking out of town with a 45-38 victory. Christian Ponder played remarkably well in their first meeting, which was his first NFL start. But the rookie will undergo some growing pains on Monday night. Green Bay's defense shines bright as the Pack wins handily, beating the Vikes by 16.

Friday, November 4, 2011

High stakes, playoff implications dominate NFL Week 9

Can you believe we're at the halfway point of the NFL season? Another scintillating season so far filled with surprise runs, dramatic comebacks, and a few crash n burns! As we move forward into the second half of the regular season teams are beginning to focus on their division races and ponder playoff positioning. Theme of this week: revenge and retribution. Payback will be on the minds of plenty as we'll see numerous teams try to take advantage of redemption opportunities! Other interesting storyline to watch: Can Miami or Indy score their first win? Here we go...

Jets travel to Buffalo for crucial division game: Do or die game for Rex's gang green and at 4-3 they can't afford  a fourth loss at this point if they want to compete for the AFC East crown. As big as this contest is for the Jets, it's even bigger for the Bills. Long has it been since Buffalo has played a meaningful game in November and now they stand poised to compete all season for not only a playoff spot but potentially a first round bye. All that said, I think Fred Jackson is the x-factor in the game and the fact that the Jets have failed to win a road game this season. New York's embattled quarterback throws a couple of costly picks, combined with a weak running game ultimately leads to their demise. Behind their resurgent defense, Bills defeat NY by 9.

Seattle at Dallas: Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss in Philly and realize they have to take advantage of the lowly Seahawks to mount any type of charge to the postseason. Seattle played beyond terrible at home last Sunday and although they've already pulled off a stunning road win against the Giants I can't see them catching lightning in a bottle twice. Boys score early and often, smother pathetic Seahawks by 17.

Dolphins visit KC searching first W: Is this finally the week Miami tastes victory? They have been in most of their games and quite honestly, it's hard to believe they haven't pulled one out yet. However, they are running into the right team at the worst time. Maybe if they had the Chiefs in week 2 they would have a better shot at coming out on top? Perhaps. The Chiefs became first team in NFL history to lose their first three games then win four in a row and have a share of the division lead. The AFC West has suddenly become a very interesting race that should go down to the wire. Sorry Miami fans, this isn't the week your team breaks through. KC picks up more steam and wins... barely by 4.

Niners go coast-to-coast to battle Redskins: Washington was humiliated last week in Buffalo, getting shutout 28-0. San Fran is 6-1 and in prime position to win their division and possibly even get a first-round bye. At 3-4, the Skins are still alive for a postseason berth amid their quarterback turmoil. Will Shanahan put Rex Grossman back in? Can the Skins defense bring Alex Smith back down to Earth? I think desperation plays a huge role in this game and Washington plays desperate on both sides of the ball and finds a way to stop the 49er offense. Beck plays well enough to finish the game and keep the starting job for now. Niners finally look human as Washington humbles Harbaugh's crew by 7.

Payback game - Bucs land in hostile New Orleans: The Saints not only lost a crucial division game when played a few weeks ago in Tampa they also lost their head coach to a broken leg injury that will force him to coach from the booth, in all likelihood, for the rest of the season. The Buccaneers have been an up and down team, coming out tough and impressive some weeks then stunningly flat in others. The Saints were a disaster last week, losing a very winnable game to previously win-less St. Louis. I expect a angry team in the Bayou to smack Tampa Bay right in the mouth from the first play, reminding them they still aren't ready to play with the big boys. Huge day for Brees and his collection of speedy receivers, Saints win by 15.

Falcons fly into Indy as Colts try for elusive first victory: I won't waste any time on this game. Atlanta wins handily and Indy fans get to see first hand how nasty losses can be without the oh so valuable Peyton Manning. Dirty Birds soar high, crush Colts by 24. We will all be debating Monday if Indianapolis will finish the season 0-16?? Only time will tell but this sports guru sees Andrew Luck putting on a Colts hat shaking the commissioner's hand first at the 2012 NFL Draft!

Brownies try to play spoiler at Houston: Although the Texans are piling up injuries like Jared Allen is sacks, I still see the home team coming out on top. Arian Foster is a beast while Colt McCoy and the Cleveland offense can't seem to find any type of offensive rhythm. Regardless of Andre Johnson playing or missing another game, Houston does not have a problem. Texans over Browns by 10.

Bengals visit Titans: Don't fall off your seat now, I'm warning you... the Cincinnati Bengals are 5-2. Everyone ok? Trust me I'm just as shocked as you are. Cincy's rookie QB has played well enough to support their league-leading defense and set themselves up perfectly for a possible playoff return. Tennessee is an odd team this season. NFL game-breaker Chris Johnson has been a shell of his former self and newly acquired quarterback Matt Hasslbeck hasn't quite hit his stride yet. Still, the Titans are 4-3 and even after their dreadful performance at home against Schaub and their division rivals, they get another chance at home to gain their fifth win of the season. I may regret this pick but I'm going with the Titans. I just can't see the Bengals at 6-2 and Bengal quarterback Andy Dalton will have his stumbles at some point this season, starting this week. Bold prediction: CJ goes on a tear against the league's statistically best D, rushes for over 100 yards, leading the Titans to a stunning three point upset win. Is this an upset? Am I crazy? Did I just pick the Titans to win a meaningful game? This should be interesting!

Tebow leads Broncos into Black Hole showdown: Carson Palmer has had two weeks to learn the system and get some familiarity with his receivers. After Tim Tebow's amazing comeback in Miami in the final three minutes he came back down to Earth last week as the visiting Lions devoured him over and over again. The Raiders may very well be without game-changer Darren McFadden but they have enough to beat the fading Broncos. The game stays close in the first half but Oakland pulls away in fourth, holding off Denver to win by 12.

St. Louis at Arizona: This has let-down game written all over it. Just last Sunday the Rams shocked the NFL world with an unexpected win over the high-octane Saints. The Cardinals are fresh off their devastating collapse at Baltimore where they led by three touchdowns only to blow the shot at winning their second game of the year. I expect St. Louis to come out flat and Arizona to capitalize on it. Home team Cards win in a romp by 13.

Undefeated Packers take on San Diego: This is the week Green Bay falls. The Chargers choked away a very important division game Monday night in KC and are out to prove they can quickly rebound and save their season. Currently tied with the Chiefs and Raiders for first in the AFC West, Rivers must be sharp and aggressive to take advantage of a suspect Packer defense. Aaron Rodgers has been playing out of this world and eventually he will show his mortality... starting this week. Chargers hand the Cheeseheads their first loss, winning by 4 after Philip Rivers leads them to a go-ahead touchdown in the final minutes.

SuperBowl XLII rematch in Foxboro: Not a single Patriots fan has forgotten what happened in Glendale Arizona after completing a perfect 16-0 regular season. Especially Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Revenge. Retribution. Payback. All of these will come in the form of multiple Brady TDs, I'll go with three. The heavily-criticized New England defense will rise to the occasion with Coach Belichick drawing up a special game-plan for the hated Gmen. Even though Eli has been playing at a high level, the Giants won't be able to match the emotional intensity brought by the home team. New England shakes off the Steelers loss as Welker explodes with a much-needed breakout game. Pats defeat NY, 34-21.

Ravens/Steelers Part II: Best rivalry in the NFL? Many would emphatically agree. If you like bone-crushing hits, smash mouth football, and heart-stopping battles then put your helmet on, buckle your seat belt, and turn on NBC Sunday night. Flash back to week one. The site: Baltimore. The Ravens were mad. No, they were angry. Wrong again, actually they were beyond furious. After the Steelers eliminated the Ravens last season in the playoffs, Ray Lewis and his defense were ready for revenge. And oh did they get it on day one of the 2011 NFL season. Baltimore stormed out of the gate, forcing SEVEN Steeler turnovers, scoring 35 points on the famous 'steel curtain' defense, and held Big Ben & co. to a measly seven points. Pittsburgh, still shining bright after a huge win over Brady and the Pats last Sunday, will have retribution on their minds when they welcome their division rivals to Heinz Field. At first glance you would pick the Steelers hands down because of the payback factor. However, the Steelers D is severely wounded at linebacker and I believe this comes back to bite them. Look for Flacco to get the ball to Ray Rice all night long, playing keep away with Pitt much like Big Ben did to Brady last Sunday. Shockingly enough, I'm going with Baltimore by 4. I know, gutsy pick!

MNF - Chicago takes on 'dream team' Eagles: Philly sent a message to the NFC last week that they shouldn't be buried and left for dead, not yet at least. Da Bears need this game to keep pace with Detroit and Green Bay but Philadelphia needs its more. Michael Vick looked motivated and determined against Dallas last week. Chitown will keep it close but Culter turnovers will ultimately lead to their demise. Eagles by 7.

Overtime - College football game of the year: LSU at Alabama - #1 vs #2 should definitely live up to the hype, as the best in SEC and country battle to remain unbeaten. The winner is all but guaranteed a spot in the BCS National Championship game in the Bayou. Trent Richardson will run hard for the Tide but unfortunately for him the Tigers have three of the best cover corners all around which will allow LSU to keep eight in the box all night. Is it an upset when 1 beats 2? In a hostile environment? Louisiana State loves big games on the road and this promises to be an instant classic in Tuscaloosa. Low-scoring, defensive heavy hitter bout ends with a game-winning field goal... by LSU! Tigers top Tide by 2.